Climate Change

Climate system is an interactive combination of atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere. Due to its own internal dynamics and other external forces, climate changes slowly.

The importance of climate in human life is associated with positive or negative effects of the climate in social and economic life and how it affects. To sustain the lives of people under better conditions and more soundly, many institutions and organizations, both as national and international, central and local governments and non-governmental organizations have made efforts in different ways in order to determine changes that may occur in climate and the impact of these changes correctly.

The most important of these efforts are climate modelling studies. Variables representing environmental conditions may include in the model in more detail in conjunction with the development of technology. From the 1970s climate models began to be used with the proliferation of the use of computers for scientific purposes. In the first climate model studies, climate was modelled according to only the atmosphere and observed parameters in the atmosphere. In parallel with technological and scientific developments, land surface, oceans, sea ice, sulphate aerosols, carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics of vegetation and other factors have been new parameters that are important inputs to climate models.

New Scenarios

A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of the world. It is not a forecast; rather, each scenario is one alternative image of how the future can unfold. They are representative in that they are one of several different scenarios that have similar radiative forcing and emissions characteristics. In our climate modelling study, we tried to reveal the possibilities of future climate change for Turkey in a region encompassing our country with the regional climate model. HadGEM2-ES Global Circulation Model outputs which is produced with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 concentration scenarios have been used in the study, which are used CMIP5 project and situated in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. Temperature and precipitation projections for Turkey have been produced from these outputs, for a domain with 20 km resolution that is include our country and for a period between the years 2013-2099, using by RegCM4.3.4 regional climate model and with dynamic downscaling method.

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